A comparison of methods for quantifying prediction uncertainty in systems biology
Contents
Citation
Villaverde, Alejandro F., et al. "A comparison of methods for quantifying prediction uncertainty in systems biology." IFAC-PapersOnLine 52.26 (2019): 45-51.
Summary
Three methods for quantifying prediction uncertainty in ODE models are assessed. Here, prediction uncertainty does not refer to estimated parameters, but to the uncertatinty of state trajectories. The three methods are: Fisher Information Matrix (FIM), Prediction Posetrior (PP), Ensemble Consensus (ENS).
Study outcomes
Outcome O1
For a small, fully-observed ODE model (α-pinene), all three methods yield nearly same results consistent with the known true trajectories. For a larger, only-partially observed ODE model (JAK2/STAT5), PP and ENS yield better accuracy than FIM. However, even for PP and ENS, confidence levels do not cover the truth.
Outcome O2
The computational cost of the three models is differing, especially for large problems: FIM (small), ENS (intermediate), PP (high)
Study design and evidence level
General aspects
Synthetic data is generated for two examplary ODE models, given a true parameter set. The sample correlation coefficient is used to quantify agreement between predicted and true state trajectories.
Design for Outcome O1
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Design for Outcome O2
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Design for Outcome O
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Further comments and aspects
References
The list of cited or related literature is placed here.