Difference between revisions of "A comparison of methods for quantifying prediction uncertainty in systems biology"
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==== Outcome O1 ==== | ==== Outcome O1 ==== | ||
For a small, fully-observed ODE model (α-pinene), all three methods yield nearly same results consistent with the known true trajectories. | For a small, fully-observed ODE model (α-pinene), all three methods yield nearly same results consistent with the known true trajectories. | ||
+ | For a larger, only-partially observed ODE model (JAK2/STAT5), PP and ENS yield better accuracy than FIM. However, even for PP and ENS, confidence levels do not cover the truth. | ||
==== Outcome O2 ==== | ==== Outcome O2 ==== |
Revision as of 12:59, 25 February 2020
Contents
Citation
Villaverde, Alejandro F., et al. "A comparison of methods for quantifying prediction uncertainty in systems biology." IFAC-PapersOnLine 52.26 (2019): 45-51.
Summary
Three methods for quantifying prediction uncertainty in ODE models are assessed. Here, prediction uncertainty does not refer to estimated parameters, but to the uncertatinty of state trajectories. The three methods are: Fisher Information Matrix (FIM), Prediction Posetrior (PP), Ensemble Consensus (ENS).
Study outcomes
Outcome O1
For a small, fully-observed ODE model (α-pinene), all three methods yield nearly same results consistent with the known true trajectories. For a larger, only-partially observed ODE model (JAK2/STAT5), PP and ENS yield better accuracy than FIM. However, even for PP and ENS, confidence levels do not cover the truth.
Outcome O2
For a larger, only-partially observed ODE model (JAK2/STAT5), PP and ENS yield better accuracy than FIM. However, even for PP and ENS, confidence levels do not cover the truth.
Outcome O3
The computational cost of the three models is differing, especially for large problems: FIM (small), ENS (intermediate), PP (high)
Further outcomes
If intended, you can add further outcomes here.
Study design and evidence level
General aspects
You can describe general design aspects here. The study designs for describing specific outcomes are listed in the following subsections:
Design for Outcome O1
- The outcome was generated for ...
- Configuration parameters were chosen ...
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Design for Outcome O2
- The outcome was generated for ...
- Configuration parameters were chosen ...
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Design for Outcome O
- The outcome was generated for ...
- Configuration parameters were chosen ...
- ...
Further comments and aspects
References
The list of cited or related literature is placed here.